Hays Research polls Don Young’s strength in the GOP primary for Alaska’s at-large House seat (7/24-25, adults, 5/7 in parens):
Don Young (R-inc): 42 (45)
Sean Parnell (R): 46 (42)
(MoE: ±7.4%)
That’s an awfully high margin of error, and the poll doesn’t even include Gabrielle LeDoux. Still, I think that the indictment of Stevens is a serious blow to Young’s chances, as anti-incumbent and anti-corruption sentiments will be running high in Alaska next month.
But even if Parnell knocks off Young, the poll finds that there is still hope for Democrats:
Ethan Berkowitz (D): 33
Sean Parnell (R): 30
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Don Young’s favorables are still in the gutter at 41-56, while Sarah Palin’s are at a sky-high 80-16 (which is actually a slight drop from her 86-9 rating in May).
Don Young was finished even before all of this happened, and now people are going to come in droves to vote him out, even though he has not been indictmented. It’s called guilt by association, and unlike Ted Stevens, who is facing five or six no-name candidates, Young only has one legitimate primary opponent.
I now feel that Parnell would be totally beatable. Voters might be in a throw-the-bums out mood come November, and Parnell is right below Queen Palin. I applaud Parnell for basically admitting he has zero merits or qualifications for the job, and from day one has been running solely on Palin’s coattails. But given Palin’s current problems, that might finally catch up to him.
Palin’s numbers are bound to fall.
This could even flip the State Senate.
LeDoux poasted a big ad buy (wasn’t it over 100,000?, and the last poll showed LeDoux getting around 7% before her ad by and before the Palin scandal. I would not be surprised if LeDoux got more then 15% of the vote.
The poll lacks Le Doux, so it’s predictive force isn’t great, but if polling shows a close race then Don Young is toast. No way are his supporters going to be more energised than those who want to kick him out.
Also, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Stevens indictment further increases the throw out the bums mood in Alaska.